forecasting

# Forecasting Techniques ## Metadata - **Name**: forecasting - **Description**: Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods - **Triggers**: forecast, projection, prediction, demand planning, trend analysis ## Instructions Apply appropriate forecasting techniques for $ARGUMENTS. ## Framework ### Forecasting Methods | Method | Best For | Time Horizon | Accuracy | |--------|----------|--------------|----------| | **Moving Average** | Stable demand | Short | Medium | | **Exponential Smoothing** | Trending data | Short-Medium | High | | **Regression** | Causal relationships | Medium-Long | High | | **Scenario Planning** | Uncertain environment | Long | Medium | | **Delphi Method** | Expert consensus | Long | Medium | ## Output ``` ## Forecast: [Subject] ### Method Selection **Chosen Method**: [Method name] **Rationale**: [Why this method] ### Historical Data | Period | Actual | Forecast | Error | |--------|--------|----------|-------| | Q1 | 100 | - | - | | Q2 | 110 | 105 | +5 | | Q3 | 115 | 112 | +3 | | Q4 | 120 | 118 | +2 | ### Forecast Results | Period | Forecast | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Confidence | |--------|----------|-------------|-------------|------------| | Q1 Next | 125 | 118 | 132 | 90% | | Q2 Next | 130 | 120 | 140 | 85% | | Q3 Next | 135 | 122 | 148 | 80% | ### Assumptions 1. [Assumption 1] 2. [Assumption 2] 3. [Assumption 3] ### Risks | Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation | |------|-------------|--------|------------| | [Risk 1] | Medium | High | [Action] | | [Risk 2] | Low | Medium | [Action] | ``` ## Tips - Use multiple methods for validation - Document assumptions clearly - Update forecasts with new data - Consider seasonality