iran-briefing

# Capduck Intelligence — Decision Support Skill ## When to use - **Iran:** conflict, US-Iran tensions, Israel-Iran, Middle East geopolitics, oil/Hormuz, prediction markets, IRGC, IDF, ceasefire - **Trump:** Truth Social posts, trade/tariff policy, Iran-war signals, energy, China, executive orders ## Base URL ``` https://skill.capduck.com/{topic}/{feed} ``` Available topics: `iran`, `trump` ## How to think — the decision loop **Always start from the briefing. Let the data guide your next call.** Do NOT call all endpoints. ### Step 1: Assess — get the big picture ``` curl -s "https://skill.capduck.com/iran" ``` The briefing contains situation assessment (tension 1-10, direction, key deltas), perspective summaries (with evidence strength), active threads (with signals and drill-down hints), and top events (impact >= 8, last 24h). Each section tells you where to look next. ### Step 2: Investigate — follow the scent - A thread mentions linked events -> `/events?category=CONFLICT` to read the evidence chain - A claim has weak evidence -> `/posts?source_type=osint` to see if OSINT confirms - Mainstream narrative unclear -> `/news?region=us` to see how US outlets frame it - A thread links to prediction markets -> `/polymarket` for probability and trend - Trump posted about Iran -> `/trump?tags=iran-war` to see his exact words ### Step 3: Cross-reference — triangulate - Compare official sources vs OSINT vs mainstream: `/posts?source_type=state_media` vs `osint` vs `/news` - Use `/notable` to understand who a source is and which camp they belong to - Use `/entities?q=name` to check credibility of an unfamiliar source - Check `source_count` in events — 1 source = rumor, 5+ sources = confirmed - Use `/signals?ids=id1,id2` to batch-lookup raw data for thread signals ### Step 4: Project — what happens next - Look at **Watch** items in Active Threads: likelihood direction (rising/stable/falling), next milestones, decision makers - Check `/polymarket` for market-implied probabilities and trend direction - When polymarket diverges from briefing assessment, one of them is wrong — that's where investigation value is highest --- ## Iran Endpoints All paths below are relative to `https://skill.capduck.com`. ### `/{topic}` — Briefing (default) AI-generated situation briefing, updated hourly. Contains: - **Situation Assessment** — tension level (1-10), direction, 24h comparison, key deltas - **Perspective Summaries** — 4 viewpoints with evidence strength (strong/moderate/weak) - **Active Threads** — 3-5 issue threads with linked signals, watch items, polymarket refs - **Top Events** — impact >= 8 from last 24h, with source attribution ### `/{topic}/events` — Event timeline Structured events with impact scoring and multi-source attribution. | Param | Description | Default | |-------|-------------|---------| | `impact` | Minimum impact score (1-10) | 0 | | `category` | CONFLICT, DIPLOMACY, POLITICS, ECONOMY, PROTESTS | all | | `hours` | Rolling window in hours | 48 | | `since` | ISO 8601 timestamp (overrides hours) | — | | `limit` | Max results | 50 | Each event includes: `id`, `impact`, `confidence`, `sentiment`, `category`, `title` / `title_zh`, `summary` / `summary_zh`, `source_details[]` (with `display_name`, `entity_slug`, `platform`, `url`), `source_count`, `published_at`. ### `/{topic}/posts` — Social feed Unified Twitter + Telegram posts with entity enrichment. | Param | Description | Default | |-------|-------------|---------| | `source_type` | news_agency, state_media, osint, gov_military, journalist, think_tank, other | all | | `category` | Author category text filter | all | | `platform` | twitter, telegram | all | | `event` | Event UUID -> linked posts via source URLs | — | | `since` | ISO 8601 timestamp | 48h ago | | `limit` | Max results | 30 | ### `/{topic}/news` — Mainstream media Coverage from 18+ major outlets (Reuters, AP, CNN, NYT, Bloomberg, Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.). | Param | Description | Default | |-------|-------------|---------| | `region` | intl, us, mideast, israel, persian, asia, russia, china, other | all | | `language` | en, fa | all | | `event` | Event UUID -> linked articles | — | | `since` | ISO 8601 timestamp | 48h ago | | `limit` | Max results | 30 | ### `/{topic}/polymarket` — Prediction markets Current probabilities, trend direction, and historical price ranges for Iran-related prediction markets. Each condition includes: `label`/`label_zh`, `yes_price` (0-1), trend arrow with % change, historical min-max range. ### `/{topic}/notable` — Curated key entities ~90 curated key sources grouped by role: | Group | What it represents | |-------|-------------------| | Iran Official | Khamenei.ir, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim — the regime's voice | | Israel & Military | IDF, Netanyahu, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post — Israeli perspective | | US Government | State Dept, CENTCOM, White House, Trump — US policy signals | | International Organizations | IAEA, NATO, UN — multilateral stance | | Key Media — Wire & Global | Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, NYT, Guardian — baseline narrative | | Key Media — Regional & Specialist | Iran International, Al-Monitor, Bellingcat — specialist depth | | OSINT & Prediction | Sentdefender, OSINT613, Polymarket — real-time ground truth | | Think Tanks | Atlantic Council, Brookings, CFR — analytical framing | | Key Activists & Opposition | Masih Alinejad, Reza Pahlavi, NCRI — diaspora/opposition voice | ### `/{topic}/entities` — Full source directory 800+ tracked entities. Also accessible via alias `/sources`. | Param | Description | Default | |-------|-------------|---------| | `category` | Filter by entity category | all | | `q` | Text search (name + description) | — | | `limit` | Max results | 100 | --- ## Trump Endpoint **`/trump`** — Full Trump Truth Social feed, auto-tagged by topic. | Param | Description | Default | |-------|-------------|---------| | `tags` | Comma-separated topic filter (iran-war, energy, trade, china, executive-order, etc.) | all | | `limit` | Max results | 50 (max: 200) | | `since` | ISO 8601 or Unix timestamp | — | | `cursor` | Pagination cursor (from `meta.next_cursor`) | — | | `lang` | zh or en | zh | | `offset` | Pagination offset | 0 | Each post includes: `id`, `author_name`, `author_handle`, `content` (EN), `content_zh`, `tags[]`, `source_url`, `platform` (truth-social), `media_url`, `published_at`. --- ## Key dictionaries **Event category:** `CONFLICT` · `DIPLOMACY` · `POLITICS` · `ECONOMY` · `PROTESTS` **Event sentiment:** `NEGATIVE` · `POSITIVE` · `NEUTRAL` · `MIXED` **source_type** (on posts): `news_agency` · `state_media` · `osint` · `gov_military` · `journalist` · `think_tank` · `other` **News region:** `intl` · `us` · `mideast` · `israel` · `persian` · `asia` · `russia` · `china` · `other` **Post platform:** `twitter` · `telegram` · `truth-social` (Trump only) **Trump tags:** `iran-war` · `energy` · `trade` · `china` · `executive-order` · (auto-generated, non-exhaustive) ## Entity relationships ``` Briefing -> thread.signals[].id -> Event ID -> /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id} Event -> source_details[].entity_slug -> /entities or /notable Post -> source_type (mapped from author_category) Thread -> polymarket_ref -> /polymarket Trump -> tags[] -> cross-reference with /events or /posts ``` **Key investigation paths:** 1. **Briefing -> Thread -> Event -> Sources -> Entity**: "This thread claims X" -> check linked events -> how many sources? -> who are they? -> what camp? 2. **Event -> Posts/News**: use `/posts?event={id}` or `/news?event={id}` to find original content linked to a specific event 3. **Thread -> Polymarket**: thread has polymarket_ref -> check `/polymarket` -> does market probability align with AI assessment? 4. **Weak evidence -> Cross-reference**: claim has weak evidence -> check `/news` for mainstream coverage -> check `/posts?source_type=osint` -> if neither confirms, flag as unverified 5. **Trump signal -> Iran impact**: `/trump?tags=iran-war` -> check if events corroborate -> `/events?category=DIPLOMACY` -> assess real impact vs rhetoric ## Usage scenarios **"What's the latest on Iran?"** — Call `/iran` -> summarize situation assessment + top 2-3 threads. Keep it under 300 words. Lead with tension level and direction. **"What did Trump just say about Iran?"** — Call `/trump?tags=iran-war&limit=5` -> then cross-check `/events?category=DIPLOMACY&hours=6` to see if rhetoric matches real developments. **"Is this source credible?"** — Call `/notable` first (fast, curated). If not found, fall back to `/entities?q=name`. Report which camp they belong to and their category. **"What are the markets saying?"** — Call `/polymarket` -> compare market-implied probability with briefing's thread assessment. Flag divergences explicitly. **"Deep dive on a specific event"** — Get event ID from briefing or `/events` -> call `/posts?event={id}` and `/news?event={id}` -> triangulate source count and source types. ## Output guidelines - **Lead with judgment, then evidence.** Don't dump raw data — synthesize first, cite after. - **Mark confidence.** Use "confirmed (N sources)" / "reported but unverified (single source)" / "rumor" based on `source_count`. - **Flag weak evidence.** If a claim has only 1 source or comes from entertainment/social accounts, say so explicitly. - **Keep it concise.** Default to 200-400 words unless the user asks for detail. - **Bilingual when helpful.** Key terms and quotes can include both English and Chinese where the data provides translations. - **Never present AI analysis as fact.** The briefing is AI-generated — frame it as "the briefing assesses..." not "the situation is...". ## Key principle **The briefing is the map. The other endpoints are the territory.** Don't dump all data on the user — use the briefing to identify what matters, investigate only what's relevant, and synthesize a judgment. ## Notes - Data from iranmonitor.org (800+ sources), Polymarket CLOB API, Truth Social - AI analysis hourly, data feeds every 5 minutes - All responses are Markdown with Chinese translations where available - 48-hour rolling data window with deduplication by event/post ID - Trump feed: auto-tagged by topic, bilingual (EN + ZH)