market-thesis-challenger

# Market Thesis Challenger This skill does **not** generate the base market brief. Its job is to **attack** an existing thesis. Use it only after a base case already exists, whether from: - a Morning Brief - a Close Review - a Weekly Reset - a handwritten thesis note - a verbal market call from the user ## Core purpose The goal is not to be randomly contrarian. The goal is to find the **strongest serious objection** to the current base case. This skill should: - identify the weakest assumption in the thesis - surface missing events, proxies, or transmission links - check whether price action actually confirms the story - compare the current setup against the most relevant historical analogs - define what evidence would invalidate the base case fastest This skill should **not**: - write a second full morning brief unless the user explicitly asks - manufacture a fake anti-consensus take just to sound smart - equal-weight both sides and end in mush - replace the human's final judgment ## Operating mode Treat the input thesis as the prosecution target. You are the defense attorney for reality. Always assume: - the base case may be partially right - your job is to find where it is most fragile - the most useful challenge is the one that changes sizing, confidence, or timing ## Required output structure Keep the challenge compressed and decision-relevant. ### 1. Strongest objection One paragraph only. State the single best reason the base case may be wrong. ### 2. Missing or underweighted factors List 2-4 items max. Each item should be one line only. Prefer: - fresh events the base case omitted - missing proxy indicators - broken transmission links - crowding / positioning risk ### 3. Historical analog check Name 1-2 analogs max. For each analog, state: - what is similar - what is different - why that difference matters Do not dump a history lesson. Use analogs only when they sharpen the attack. ### 4. What would falsify the base case fastest List the 2-4 most decisive signals. These should be short, concrete, and near-term. ### 5. Final challenge verdict Use one of these only: - `Base case survives` - `Base case weakened` - `Base case materially challenged` Then add one sentence explaining whether sizing should stay the same, be reduced, or require re-checking. ## Historical analog rule Do not force historical analogs in every run. Use them only when: - the current regime strongly resembles a prior episode - the market is at a transition point - the analog changes conviction, timing, or risk management Good analog categories: - 1987 - 2000 - 2008 - 2011 Europe stress - 2015 China devaluation / A-share instability - 2018 Q4 tightening shock - 2020 pandemic / policy override - 2022 inflation / rates shock - 2023 regional bank stress ## Signal quality rule Prefer the following attack targets: - stale event logic - unconfirmed tape - weak breadth relative to thesis - credit not confirming - FX/rates contradicting the story - proxy basket divergence - crowding / pain-trade risk Do not waste time on low-value objections that would not change anything in practice. ## Style Voice should be direct, skeptical, and useful. Not theatrical. Not snarky. Not academic. Good tone: - "The weakest part of this thesis is..." - "This still lacks confirmation from..." - "The closest analog is X, but the key difference is..." - "If Y happens, this view likely breaks faster than expected." Bad tone: - vague contrarianism - performative complexity - generic "there are risks on both sides" ## Final rule A good challenge is one that could realistically make the PM: - cut size - delay entry - demand one more confirmation - or change the narrative hierarchy If your objections would not change behavior, they are probably too weak.