neckr0ik-polymarket-trader

# Polymarket Arbitrage Detector Detect risk-free arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket. ## Quick Start ```bash # Scan all markets for arbitrage opportunities neckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan # Monitor specific market for spreads neckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market "will-trump-declare-war" # Find cross-platform arbitrage neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform --markets bitcoin-100k # Correlate news with markets neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords "Israel,Iran,war" ``` ## What This Detects ### 1. Direct Spread Arbitrage When YES + NO prices don't equal $1.00. ``` Example: YES: $0.48 NO: $0.50 Combined: $0.98 Profit: $0.02 (2.04% risk-free) ``` ### 2. Cross-Market Correlation Related markets with inconsistent pricing. ``` Example: "Trump wins 2026?" @ 55% "Republican wins?" @ 48% → Logically impossible. Trump > Republican shouldn't happen. ``` ### 3. News-Driven Opportunities Breaking news vs. market pricing. ``` Example: News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender." Market: "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40% Signal: Military action ≠ war declaration. May be overpriced. ``` ### 4. Cross-Platform Arbitrage Same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi. ``` Example: Polymarket: "BTC > $100k by EOY" YES @ 0.55 Kalshi: Same market YES @ 0.62 → Buy Polymarket, sell Kalshi. 7% locked profit. ``` ### 5. Endgame Arbitrage Near-certain outcomes close to resolution. ``` Example: Market resolves in 48 hours Current price: $0.97 Buy and hold to $1.00 → 3% profit in 2 days (548% annualized) ``` ## Commands ### scan Scan all markets for arbitrage. ```bash neckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan [options] Options: --min-spread <pct> Minimum spread percentage (default: 2) --max-results <n> Max results to return (default: 20) --output <format> Output format (table, json, csv) ``` ### monitor Continuously monitor specific markets. ```bash neckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market <id> [options] Options: --interval <sec> Check interval (default: 5) --alert-spread <pct> Alert when spread exceeds threshold --webhook <url> Send alerts to webhook ``` ### cross-platform Compare prices across platforms. ```bash neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform [options] Options: --platforms <list> Platforms to compare (polymarket,kalshi) --min-spread <pct> Minimum spread (default: 3) ``` ### news Correlate breaking news with markets. ```bash neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords <terms> [options] Options: --sources <list> News sources (reuters,ap,cnbc,bbc) --market-keywords <list> Polymarket search terms --alert Send alerts on correlation ``` ### endgame Find near-resolution opportunities. ```bash neckr0ik-polymarket-trader endgame [options] Options: --min-prob <pct> Minimum probability (default: 95) --max-days <n> Max days to resolution (default: 7) --min-roi <pct> Minimum annualized ROI (default: 100) ``` ## Output Examples ### Spread Arbitrage Detection ``` ARBITRAGE FOUND Market: Will Bitcoin reach $100k by EOY 2026? YES Price: $0.48 NO Price: $0.50 Spread: 2.0% ($0.02) Volume: $1.2M Profit/Trade: $20 per $1,000 Annualized: 548% (if held 2 days) ``` ### Cross-Market Correlation ``` CORRELATION VIOLATION Market 1: "Will Trump win 2026?" @ 55% Market 2: "Will a Republican win?" @ 48% Issue: Trump winning implies Republican wins Logic: Market 1 should be <= Market 2 Action: Sell Market 1 YES, Buy Market 2 NO ``` ### News Correlation ``` NEWS-MARKET CORRELATION Breaking News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender." Related Markets: 1. "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40% → May be OVERPRICED 2. "Will Israel strike Lebanon?" @ 85% → Already occurred 3. "Will oil hit $100?" @ 25% → May be UNDERPRICED Signal: Military action ≠ formal war declaration ``` ## Risk Management - **Spread threshold:** Only trade spreads > 2% (after fees) - **Position limit:** Max 10% of portfolio per market - **Resolution clarity:** Avoid subjective markets - **Execution speed:** Use WebSocket, not polling ## Technical Details ### Detection Speed Requirements | Method | Detection Time | Execution | |--------|---------------|-----------| | Manual | Minutes | Seconds | | Semi-auto | Seconds | Manual | | Full bot | Milliseconds | Sub-100ms | ### Fee Structure | Platform | Fee | |----------|-----| | Polymarket US | 0.01% | | Polymarket Int'l | 2% on winnings | | Polygon gas | ~$0.007 | ## See Also - `references/polymarket-strategies.md` — Full strategy guide - `scripts/arbitrage_detector.py` — Detection engine - `scripts/news_correlator.py` — News-market correlation