sensitivity-charts

# Sensitivity Charts ## Metadata - **Name**: sensitivity-charts - **Description**: Sensitivity analysis and tornado charts - **Triggers**: sensitivity, tornado chart, what-if, variable impact ## Instructions Perform sensitivity analysis for $ARGUMENTS. ## Framework ### Tornado Chart ``` Base Case: $100M │ ┌─────────┼─────────┐ │ +$20M│ │-$10M Price ├─────────┼─────────┤ │ +$15M │ │-$8M Volume ├─────────┼─────────┤ │ +$8M │ │-$12M Cost ├─────────┼─────────┤ │ +$5M │ │-$3M Mix └─────────┼─────────┘ │ ▼ ``` ### Variables to Test | Variable | Range | Impact | |----------|-------|--------| | Price | ±10% | High | | Volume | ±20% | High | | Cost | ±15% | Medium | | Mix | ±5% | Low | ## Output ``` ## Sensitivity Analysis: [Decision/Project] ### Variable Impact Ranking | Variable | Base | Low Case | High Case | Impact | |----------|------|----------|-----------|--------| | Price | $100 | $85 (-15%) | $115 (+15%) | $30M | | Volume | 1M | 800K | 1.2M | $25M | | Cost | $50 | $45 | $55 | $20M | | Mix | 50/50 | 40/60 | 60/40 | $10M | ### Scenario Analysis | Scenario | NPV | Probability | Expected Value | |----------|-----|-------------|----------------| | Base Case | $100M | 50% | $50M | | Optimistic | $150M | 20% | $30M | | Pessimistic | $60M | 30% | $18M | | **Expected** | | | **$98M** | ### Key Findings 1. **Most sensitive**: Price (±$30M impact) 2. **Least sensitive**: Mix (±$10M impact) 3. **Breakeven**: [Analysis] ### Risk Mitigation 1. [Mitigation for most sensitive variable] 2. [Mitigation for second most sensitive] ``` ## Tips - Focus on top 5-7 variables - Use realistic ranges - Show both upside and downside