simmer-weather-trader

# Simmer Weather Trader An automated trading bot for Simmer weather prediction markets. Fetches active weather markets, cross-references temperature forecasts from **4 independent sources**, and only trades when the consensus is strong. ## How it works 1. **Market Discovery** — fetches active weather markets from Simmer via the SDK 2. **Multi-Source Forecast** — gets high temperature predictions from: - **NOAA** (US government weather API) - **Open-Meteo** (free global weather API) - **Wunderground** (scraped via Playwright for broader coverage) - **NVIDIA FourcastNet** (physics-based atmospheric model) 3. **Confidence Scoring** — computes a 0–100 score based on: - Source agreement (all within ±1°F) - Market bucket fit - Simmer edge recommendation - Time to resolution 4. **Execution** — only trades when score reaches 100 (maximum confidence) ## Default signal The default strategy is **conservative multi-source consensus**: - All 3 weather sources must agree within ±1°F - FourcastNet must confirm the bucket - Simmer edge must recommend TRADE - Only YES trades (betting the temp falls within the market bucket) > **This is a template.** The default signal uses 4 weather models. Remix it by: > - Adding more weather sources (AccuWeather, Weather.com, etc.) > - Adjusting the agreement threshold (currently strict ±1°F) > - Adding NO trades (betting the temp falls outside the bucket) > - Using ML models trained on historical forecast accuracy per source ## Setup ### Environment variables ```bash SIMMER_API_KEY=your_key # Required — from simmer.markets NVIDIA_API_KEY=your_key # Required — for FourcastNet TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_token # Optional — for Telegram UI TRADE_AMOUNT=10.0 # Optional — default $10 CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD=100 # Optional — default max confidence only SIMMER_BASE_URL=https://api.simmer.markets # Optional SIMMER_VENUE=sim # Optional — default "sim" ``` ### Dependencies ```bash pip install httpx python-telegram-bot python-dotenv numpy pip install netCDF4 # For FourcastNet output parsing pip install playwright # For Wunderground scraping playwright install chromium # Required for Wunderground ``` ## Supported cities New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Boston, Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio, San Diego, Milan, Madrid, Tel Aviv, London, Paris, Berlin, Tokyo. Add more in `city_map.py`. ## Remix guide Swap in your own signals: - **Different weather sources**: Replace or add forecast functions in the `simmer_weather_bot/` folder - **Different scoring**: Modify `compute_confidence()` in `strategy.py` - **Add NO trades**: Extend the strategy to also bet against consensus - **ML-based**: Train a model on historical forecast accuracy and replace the simple agreement check The plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, Telegram UI, health checks) stays the same. ## Hard rules - Always defaults to dry-run. Pass `--live` for real trades. - Always tags trades with source and skill_slug for tracking. - Always includes reasoning with the weather data used. - Reads API keys from env — never hardcodes credentials.