stablecoin-depeg-scanner

# Stablecoin Depeg Scanner 🔍 3-minute crisis arbitrage evaluator. When a stablecoin loses its peg, run the assessment to decide: buy, watch, or avoid. ## Philosophy Depeg = panic pricing. The question is NOT "is it safe" but "is the discount bigger than the real damage?" Small position, high odds, asymmetric payoff. ## Quick Start When user mentions a stablecoin depeg event: ### Step 1: Run the automated evaluator (60 seconds) ```bash cd SKILL_DIR && python scripts/depeg_eval.py <COIN> --capital <USER_CAPITAL> ``` - `<COIN>`: CoinGecko ID or symbol (e.g., `resolv-usr`, `USR`, `DAI`) - `--capital`: User's total available capital in USD (default: 5000) - `--peg`: Target peg price if not $1.00 (default: 1.0) The script auto-fetches: current price, market cap, TVL from DefiLlama, and calculates odds + position size. Replace `SKILL_DIR` with the resolved absolute path of this SKILL.md's parent directory. ### Step 2: Complete exploit analysis (60 seconds) The script outputs a checklist. Use `web_search` to answer these questions: 1. **Was collateral stolen or was it a mint/logic exploit?** - Search: `"<coin_name> exploit PeckShield"` or `"<coin_name> hack SlowMist"` - Mint/logic exploit (collateral intact) → bullish - Collateral drained → bearish 2. **Has the team responded?** - Check their Twitter for pause announcement - Response within 1h → good sign - Silent >6h → red flag 3. **Is the bug fixable?** - Smart contract bug with clear fix → recovery likely - Fundamental design flaw → avoid ### Step 3: Adjust and deliver recommendation (60 seconds) Based on exploit analysis, adjust the script's score: - Collateral confirmed intact → score +10 - Team responded fast with plan → score +10 - Collateral partially stolen → score -10 - No team response → score -20 - Algorithmic stablecoin / no real backing → score -50 (AVOID regardless) Deliver final recommendation with: - Action: BUY / WATCH / AVOID - Position size in USD - Entry price range - Exit target - Stop condition ## Decision Framework For detailed scoring logic, exploit type analysis, historical benchmarks, and red/green flags, read `references/decision-framework.md`. ## Output Format (to user) ``` 🔍 稳定币脱锚评估: <SYMBOL> 📊 价格: • 当前: $X.XX | 锚定: $1.00 | 偏离: XX% • 赔率: X.Xx 🏦 抵押物: • TVL: $XXM (较昨日 -X%) • 状态: 完整/部分损失/已掏空 🔐 攻击分析: • 类型: 铸造漏洞/预言机/抵押物被盗 • 团队响应: 已暂停/未回应 • 可修复性: 高/中/低 📋 结论: • 操作: 🟢买入 / 🟡观望 / 🔴回避 • 仓位: $XXX (总资金X%) • 目标: $X.XX • 止损条件: XXX ``` ## Key Rules 1. **Speed over perfection** — 3 minutes, not 30 minutes. First-mover advantage is everything. 2. **TVL is truth** — DefiLlama TVL > official statements. Contracts don't lie. 3. **Small positions only** — Never >6% of capital on a single depeg bet. 4. **Algorithmic = death** — No real collateral = no recovery. Luna/UST is the permanent lesson. 5. **Exit plan before entry** — Know your sell condition before buying.